The Parlay Pick

A parlay is sort of the opposite of a straight pick, which you'll recall is picking one outcome only. Parlays are a type of pick where you pick more than one outcome.

With parlays, you can pick multiple outcomes. In most cases, you can pick outcomes across multiple sports, and multiple types of odds.

Let’s look at some theoretical matchups and the odds for them: 

Notice that these matchups are across multiple leagues, and that there are odds for each of the 3 main odds types (moneyline, point spread, totals).

Say you’ve done your research on these matchups, and have decided that there are 3 different picks you want to make:

1. Seattle to cover the 3.5-point spread against Arizona
2. Kansas City and Minnesota to go under 9.0 total runs
3. Vancouver to beat Chicago on the moneyline

You could, of course, make 3 separate straight picks for these. Or, you could combine them into a single parlay pick.

For a parlay pick to be a winner, you must correctly pick each of the outcomes in it. If even one of the picks in a parlay is incorrect, then you lose the opportunity to win anything with your parlay, regardless of how many of the other picks are winners.

That probably has you thinking something along the lines of “that sounds like a rip-off... why would anyone do that?”

With parlays, there is a multiplier effect used to calculate your potential winnings if your parlay picks are winners.

Let’s look back at our picks:

1. Seattle to cover the 3.5-point spread against Arizona: -110
2. Kansas City and Minnesota to go under 9.0 total runs: -110
3. Vancouver to beat Chicago on the moneyline: -140

This is an oversimplified example, but assume that you have 360 that you want to put up for risk:

1. Risk 110 to win 100
2. Risk 110 to win 100
3. Risk 140 to win 100

Also assume that you want to make a straight pick for each of these 3 matchups, so if one loses, you could still potentially win on the other two. The amount you are risking is the sum of the 3 picks: 110 + 110 + 140 = 360. The total amount you would win if you correctly picked all 3 matchups: 300.

Instead of making 3 separate straight picks, you could take the same 360 and create what’s called a “3-game parlay”. Unlike making 3 straight picks where the winnings would be added up, doing a parlay multiplies the odds, creating a much larger potential winning amount (the math behind it is in a later section).

Matchup 1: -110
x Matchup 2: -110
x Matchup 3: -140
Parlay Odds +525

So now, for every 100 we risk, we could potentially win 525!

Taking the 360 we risked on the straight picks and instead risking it on this parlay, the amount you would win for correctly picking all 3 matchups increases from 300 to 1,889 - more than 6 times the potential profit!

In answer to the earlier question of why anyone would risk anything on a parlay - THAT is why. The multiplier effect and way bigger potential upside makes parlays very compelling, indeed.

The drawback, of course, is that if even 1 of those 3 matchups loses, then you lose the entire 360 risked on the parlay.

The final point on parlays is the impact of a push. As we talked about in the Totals section, a push is basically another word for a tie. Let’s assume the following final scores in those 3 matchups:

1. Seattle 21, Arizona 24. Seattle covered the spread - you picked correctly!
2. Kansas City 5, Minnesota 4. You picked that the final score would be under 9.0, but there were exactly 9 runs scores - that’s known as a push.
3. Chicago 1, Vancouver 3. Vancouver won the matchup - you picked correctly!

So, your 3-game parlay has 2 winning picks and 1 push.

None of your picks was incorrect, so your parlay is not a loser. However, the pick that ended in a push is taken out of the payout calculation.

Matchup 1: -110
x Matchup 2: -110
x Matchup 3: -140
Parlay Odds +227

This effectively changes your pick to a “2-game parlay” now, and the odds changed from +525 down to +227 with the third matchup removed.

WiseStats automatically calculates your potential winnings with parlays, and will even make the necessary adjustments to your payout if one of the matchups ends in a push. You can also track all of the picks you make, broken down into Straight and Parlay picks so you can easily see your win-loss-push picking record.

Takeaway: parlays are when you predict multiple matchup outcomes; parlays are lose-one-lose-all, but the multiplier effect on the potential winnings makes up for the extra risk you are taking.